are we there yet..., page-10

SBC...

In as much as it has been frustrating to have to drill deeper, the changing parameters are for upside not downside in my view.

The better (thicker) the seal (salt) the more likelyhood of a fully charged Leadville formation.

Given the geological orientation of the lower targets (inclined upwareds to fault closure rather than dome trapped as per the Upper Ismay, the only real concern now (given the thicker than expected seal) is for the integrity of the fault controlled closure.

Given we have a confirmed virtical trap along this same fault in the Alkali Gulch member, it increases the likelyhood of similar trap for the lower Leadville Formation in my view.

In fact, the Charge in the Alkali Gulch might arguably have been sourced from a previous temporary rupture of the fault, resulting in virtical migration and backfilling of hydrocarbons from Leadville up to Alkali Gulch...(I have discussed this previously)

The fear of course is that the rupture may have remained open resulting in little or no trap in the Leadville, which is why any sign of gas here at all are important...as clearly it would suggest that the integrity of the trap is still apparent.

The bottom line is that to date, all information is pointing to a greater likelyhood of success than not.

The fact their siesmic has proven innacurate at this depth is not surprising given it is is only 2D...I suspect once this well is drilled, they will run some 3D?

Cheers!