Great to hear
@sci9249 that it is working out for you. I didn't play the options but I had before with MYG before it went down the gurgler and yeah, they can be highly profitable leverage in good times. Hope the XPE dream continues but don't stay too overweight, it's one of the problems I have and a quick way of being burnt, although addictive. Hoping to exit my overweight positions if/when they go true and diversify somewhat, just by sheer number of holdings to avoid those black swan hits (like XPE's big drop fiasco back a few weeks). It definitely makes my thirst to learn increase too having been on rollercoaster rides and the like, the only problem is usually your learning is at peak when you don't have the money to 'trade and learn' which is most frustrating!
@dill I took the STT thread (when I arrived a couple weeks back) as anywhere from >1 day (day trading) up until 12 months. It seems some holders here seem to make their runs on smaller stocks on that 1 week, 1 month, 2 month basis, but there seems to be some holders that hold on for longer on stocks due for a rerate but perhaps not on such a short time basis? I could be wrong with the assumption the STT are 4-12 months.
Maybe one way around this is for tips to include the 'estimated' timeframe? No one knows when something will hit their tip, but at least if there's an indication if they feel this is a quick 1 week, 1 month play versus a 6-12 months longer term rerating(but still 'short term' IMO) then it may give some guidance? Understand that in practicality it could be hard to get people to rate timeframes though in tips....
@minoil great performance! I need to re-read your previous response but I think you started up earlier this year? so a 85-90% performance is great, nearly doubled if you keep on at it. would you split the $10k into 2 x $5k portfolios after if so?
I need to (now that I've exported it all fully) sit down and read that STT knowledge library as freehold advised, but afterwards I would be keen to revisit your methodologies, most notably my questions about 'playing shells' would be interesting as I notice you are going for BBR. Just not sure how to 'play' this sort of trade. Would also be curious to see how you choose your stocks once I have read the library in full, provided you don't mind sharing. I notice property magazines and investors have an abundance of 'my stories/methodologies and thoughts' articles, but not so much with shares. It's basically a guarded secret
I believe someone responded to my post the other day about 'shells' and pointed me to another forum code where a breakdown wrap of shells was? Can someone point me again in the direction, please?
@Sector Lead thanks for the quick run down. May I ask what entry price you managed to get in around about, or was it the 12c you mentioned at the end of your post? It will be interesting indeed re: mining services and coal. Following one of the other tips on here tha ti saw with RDG and indeed from what the company is saying tendering/service work is dried up and still ultra competitive. although as you mentioned having no debt and leveraged to the recovery is a great place to be. Main worry would be when this happens as a matter of timing (when, rather than if). With coal I am hoping prices sustainably recover and hold, given my exposure to the commodity itself through producers like UNV - however, from what you mentioned it seems like DSB is well leveraged /positioned for an uptick being debt free and from what you've mentioned reasonably priced fundamentals i.e. the 4c EPS estimate for 2017 and therefore 5 x PER.
With your fair value estimates I assume 7.5 PER is just a standard you'd reasonably expect companies operating in this area to trade at conservatively?
Do you believe the current dividend will be sustainable given the current forward order book if assuming no pickup of work re: coal/mining services?
hi
@TheArchitect - I am pretty sure I'd replied? I try to catch up with threads historically where I have days I'm too busy. I did post a last minute reply on the weekend post after it had 'closed'. Let me check if my comment was removed or still there, but if anything I would have replied to you then? Can you remember which post you tagged me in and what you were addressing, will try and find it and if I responded?
