re: base metals review hots Just for you in support of your Copper short-fry coming up Hots ..........reckon next major upwave will take it to 5.50 + / lb. Below from an anonymous guru. Just follow the logic. Subject to debate of course.
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A Potentially Explosive Situation has developed.
Typically Commercials are Mines and related parties that sell forward to lock in profits at attractive prices. Thus they normally have a net short position, which was the case up to February 2006. Since then the Commercials have gone into a net long position.
Large Speculators are Hedge Funds and large traders in the market place. They normally have net long positions, which was the case prior to February 2006. Since then the Large Speculators have moved into a net short position, with the largest short position being the latest one at 14 November 2006. Note the big increase in short positions by large speculators in the latest week following the break down from the triangle formation, which was noted by everyone. This is likely a false signal. Counterbalancing this is a large increase in commercials long positions.
This dramatic juxtaposition of views, when combined with the continuous decline in the Open Position (green line), creates a potentially explosive situation in the copper market. The commercials know that there is no physical metal available and will call in the shorts. Be prepared for some serious short covering in the months ahead as copper steams to new highs.
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