"It is so easy to talk about things when you do not put any numbers on them." Yes but making numbers up is just as easy which is what your doing.
"Item 22 on page 59 outlines Debt in US $ Jare $273M Mt Kellett 290M Total $ 563M Divide .77 = AU $730M. " It clearly states total borrowings of A$562m.
"Besides this there seems to be about an $80M delta between short term borrowing, and money owed vendors, and Receivables" Where did you get this info? Did you make it up?
Last spring we were told they planned to go deeper at Mt Weld to avoid expense of removing overburden to expand. What is clear is that this ore is less profitable than what original plans called for, I have no idea if it is poorer ore or just expense of getting it out. I do not know what it would cost to expand Mt Weld. It might be better to open Duncan. I will put in $20M ?? for this effort. "More made up numbers and speculation. Seriously what is the point dude."
"The plant could use some improvements. Maybe separate SEG. Maybe separate Nd from PR, Would $30M ?? cover this? " Seriously this is getting absurd. Your actually suggesting that you know better than Lynas management. What LAMP produces has been matched to suit demand and customer requirements dude. I am sure if separating the SEG into individual REO was a viable option Lynas would have included the process in the original design. Looking at the scoping study the compony released for the Duncan deposit it is clear this would not be a viable option. As for separating Pr from Nd, obviously market conditions have changed since they originally planned to do this and have adjusted the product suit to match customer requirements.
"It was clear (at least to me) when the contracts were amended last spring to defer principle and interest payments to December that they would not make it. Now with less than 3 months left even a jump Monday SEPT 3 of 70% to the ABP (average basket price) to $23.00 would only raise $9.00 times 4 KT = $36M if it all went to bottom line. This would be enough to get them past December with a little left to pay any critical vendors. If prices stayed up 70% then they would be fine. They owe Jare 15.5M in interest and 7 M in principle. Mt Kellett 8 M in interest. Total 30.5 M due in Dec. I think at that time I said they needed an immediate jump in ABP of over 20%." You need to understand that Lynas have been paying interest into a restricted bank account. As of 30 June 2016 the company had A$32.9m restricted cash and A$10.4m COH. Total of A$43.3m. The only interest repayments that have been deferred to December are for the May 2016 to September 2016 period plus the US$1.375m interest payment that was refunded in January. So in total I believe around US$10m interest due December plus US$7m principal. Total due December 2016 around A$20.5m IMO.
I believe a combination of future earnings plus COH and possibly deferral of some interest payments will be enough to see the company through the December Q. Beyond that obviously would depend on mainly REO prices and ramping up production to full capacity IMO but would probably require another amendment to the debt repayment schedule. I believe that as long as the company can demonstrate it is able to service debt obligations i.e pay interest and still have enough cash to make principal payments, renegotiation of debt with current lenders or refinancing with another lender if needed will not be an issue in future IMO.
"Both JARE and Mt Kellett’s primary responsibility is to the investors who put up the money that was loaned." No, that is factually incorrect regarding JARE. This has been pointed out to you multiple times.
Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC) was established on February 29, 2004 pursuant to the Law Concerning the Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation, which was promulgated on July 26, 2002. JOGMEC integrates the functions of the former Japan National Oil Corporation, which was in charge of securing a stable supply of oil and natural gas, and the former Metal Mining Agency of Japan, which was in charge of ensuring a stable supply of nonferrous metal and mineral resources and implementing mine pollution control measures.
"I still think this company is worth more down the road if they can operate out of the public eye till prices are much higher than today(Double???). To do this the number of owners has to be substantially reduced." I believe the company will be worth more once the operational improvements that have occurred over the last 18 months become more evident, even at current REO price. We can already see positive signs of this occuring from the FY16 Q4 report. Medium to long term REO prices will need to increase to more sustainable levels not just for the company but for the RE industry as a whole IMO.
LYC Price at posting:
5.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held