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Duang15

35 Posts.

04/10/16

09:52

Post #: 19598828
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Originally posted by wg159 ↑

These are somewhat reasonable numbers, even if they may be a little optimistic. In my modelling I am as conservative as possible then I can be confident if something is good value when it passes my investigations.

Your valuation on an interest only basis worries me. What happens in 15 years when inverters need replacing? and 20 years when some panels go.... what about efficiency declines (hint c.10% at year 10 and c.20% at year 25)? A solar system is not indefinite, you have to pay back the loan.

So what will the project make after repayments are made? That is key. If we take your 'optimistic' after interest number and assume it all pays back the loan. Assume an equity % of 20%, hence loan of 100.8m, then;
It would take about 10.5 years to pay off.

You can do your own DCF to work out a present value of the whole endeavor. Not to mention your own judgement on the dilution and corresponding EPS

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So any target price for your particular DCF modeling?

GNX Price at posting: 22.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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