The rally circa 30% from start of year was welcomed. It is where it is likely head to from here. Two moving parts so we need gold in usd to outperform audusd or else the adjusted valuation of Oz Goldies will loo expensive. No one
is disputing their profits in $ terms. Stock valuation is forward looking so tomorrow's valuation is based on consensus view of likely direction it is heading today.
We don't want another phase like what happened when gold fell from $1900 and see the big Goldies decimated. Most here are not really commenting on the daily gold movement and that is understandable. Folks keep talking long term and so am I. Flip the gold weekly chart and you cannot tell me the trend is up. I posted a trendline on the weekly for those who berate me constantly. No comment there at all so I will assume they are reluctantly in agreement?
When I think long term I don't bury head in the sand and use some doom events like DBK or Russian Aleppo brawl with the US or maybe market crash based on US debt pile. Positions will have to be managed proactively regardless of how bullish I am. I stopped believing common wisdom that everything goes up long term. If I had the wealth where I can squirrel away massive $ and let time do all the hard work then the strategy is obviously different.
I don't care who is manipulating price. It affects valuation of my exposure. It always starts off as believing it is manipulation. The deeper the retrace the less likely it is manipulated until the market confirms the destruction in the sector. Was the drop from 1900 to 1050 manipulated or the product of some economic forces? Must of the posts here are regurgitating the same rubbish conspiracy opinions and only encourage newbies to propagate that mindset. When I first started reading here many years ago I was also led into this blame game and started posting the blame too. Thank god I quickly discover how destructive this method is to objective thinking. Those who think I'm a 'dick' at least 15 from TU count of a post yesterday could well be correct. I rather that then be a diehard stubborn bias.
Daily trend is still up but if one is a long term investor then at least be aware the longer trend is down.
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