Good points. having reflected over the course of the day, I am not as shattered as I was this morning, but still many open questions to be resolved in coming days. My views on the points you raised are:
1) the benefits of ownership over collaboration - why own?
Ownership potentially gives greater integration into the larger product/service offerings, and it definitely contributes to P&L and Balance Sheet. In the early and evolving stages of the IoT sector, land grabbing revenue provides power to those that have the most. To my mind, this is the biggest loss from the failed acquisition, because as Dave points out, Zentri will (for now) remain a partner in customer acquisition.
2) the alternatives to Zentri - how many decent others are there? how likely is it BUD could buy them?
No idea, but logic would suggest that there are many and even more will evolve. BUD, IMO, needs to stay true to its strategy of land grabbing revenue across the breadth of the potential service offering. Buddy/Noveda's combined revenues in the first 2-3 quartelies, may be attractive enough to give a significant SP boost, which is our best currency for future acquisitions. The higher the SP, the less the dilution for a given acquisition price.
3) the ease with which a new plan can be formulated - is it just a shrug and off we go without Zentri?
Relatively easy I would think - as a new plan is not needed - just a new acquisition target. There must be plenty of fish in the sea....lets just find the right one. And if the right one was Zentri.....let's revisit in 6 months. Which can be a 'lifetime' in the evolution of a new sector.
4) the continued relationships between Zentri and BUD / Noveda - Dave has indicated all is good
Once the reality of what a combined BUD/Noveda looks like, the dynamics of existing partnering relationships with Zentri (and others) will start to change. For the better. I see three levels of device integration with Buddy: 1) is the basic level of interoperability. This will be based on existing and evolving standards. 2) is the level of integration from preferred partners (like Zentri); and 3) is the deepest integration from an internal (acquired) device solution. The Buddy universe will have to work at all three levels. The failed Zentri acquisition doesn't change this - it just changes which level Zentri slots into.
All IMO.
BUD Price at posting:
9.4¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held