Afternoon all,
Re: the below wheel and spoke diagram
View attachment 279326
As we wait patiently for further updates on the above developments and opportunities, thought I'd take this opportunity to provide some additional info and analysis that may be of interest to some of you.
FA update
Apart from the official launch of the
new website this week, it has been a quiet week thus far in terms of announcements.
However I would expect at least an announcement on the following items this week:
1.
Notice of AGM: This may seem unexciting for some of you but personally I am itching to attend this meeting in order to a) meet some of the crew in person and b) get a better feel for where the company is at and how it is proceeding. I'd opine that management might even be ready to drop a commercial announcement with a major partner before then, showcasing that they have been able to commercialise some of the enormous progress that has been made in the past 10-12 months.
2.
Presentation to compliment the
Complex Semiconductor JV announcement from a couple of weeks ago.
Note: last week one of our Top 20 shareholders kindly provided a copy of an email reply from Chris Wood (via FB) basically stating that the BOD had given the green light to provide further detail on the Complex JV deal. However Chris also wrote that they were waiting for their new Chinese partner to approve the request to provide further detail... so hopefully an update isn't too far away.
Also, this Friday will mark two weeks since the launch of DeB on Android and thus the IOS launch (and possibly some ADRC products to boot) is set to be announced anytime
from this week i.e. given the 2-5 week estimated timeframe provided.
TA
Below are some interesting charts that I thought may be helpful, particularly to longer term holders.
XPE Daily chart - note the extremely oversold position of ALL stochastics (3 different sensitivities). While this is no guarantee that a major reversal will occur soon, it does indicate the scope and potential for a sizeable rally on a technical basis.
Combine a strong and improving FA on a weekly basis (IMHO) and it becomes hard to imagine that these oversold levels will remain oversold for an extended period of time. In any case I am happy to remain patient and we shall see what transpires in the coming days and weeks.
View attachment 279470
XPE Daily HA chart - Note the last two candles are green. Is this just a pause in the recent trend or will we see the emergence of a new trend?
(update to this chart: today is showing a red candle thus far but still trading just above the 4.2 low).
View attachment 279500
XPE Weekly chart - interestingly we are still trading within the range of that large green candle from three weeks ago.
View attachment 279503
XPE Monthly chart - while stochastics are mixed and RSI virtually flat the momentum is up and we are trading comfortably within the range of the past couple of months.
View attachment 279509
Finally, I've put together a selection of
ASX Junior Tech stocks versus the NADSAQ Index to compare their SP performance over various time periods. Note: XPE is shown in light blue.
1. Three month performance comparison:
XPE performance (-34%)
Rank: 9th (out of 11 excluding NASDAQ Index).
View attachment 279554
2. Four month performance comparison:
XPE performance (-53%)
Rank: 9th (out of 11 excluding NASDAQ Index).
Note: Following a dismal 3-4 months SP performance, as a contrarian investor I look for XPE to be a standout performer during the December Qtr. The FA continues to improve each week and any one of a possible number of announcements of a commercial nature with a major player would most likely (IMO) trigger a spike/ instant re-rate similar to the one that has just occurred with BRN.
View attachment 279578
3. Six month performance comparison:
XPE performance +32%.
Rank: 5th (out of 11 excluding NASDAQ Index).
View attachment 279590
4. YTD comparison (9 month performance to Sept) comparison:
XPE performance +44%.
Rank: 6th (out of 11 excluding NASDAQ Index).
View attachment 279596
5. Ten month performance comparison:
XPE performance (-24%).
Rank: 8th (out of 11 excluding NASDAQ Index).
Although the number of XPE shares more than doubled in April as a result of the restructure / relisting / reverse takeover, when you consider what has been achieved since December last year (
refer to the above wheel and spoke diagram as none of these achievements and developments were in place at that stage) I'd opine that the SP is well and truly trailing the FA in terms of both fair, average and potential value.
View attachment 279623
FA snapshot (updated to include peer comparisons to RAP, BRN and SYT)
Interesting to note that the Enterprise Value for XPE is currently less than one half of BRN and still approx. one quarter the value of RAP.
View attachment 279917
TA Newsflash - Check out the Hourly chart as at 11am EST. Not sure how you can have a stochastics reading below zero but here it nonetheless (at an all time low)
View attachment 279932
GLTA
Cheers
Elpha
(20min delay)