SGH, page-4

Hey Tong,

Ever since the great big drop, folks (bulls and bears alike) have described future scenarios for this company in terms of a binary outcome - either it's going to regain its former SP glory or it'll crash and burn.

Some people (present company excepted, the guys I'm talking about have mostly long since gone) fallaciously interpreted this to mean the 'odds' of either scenario were essentially 50/50. We often heard analogies of the roulette table at casino. Anyone that's been here a while will remember these types of comments

Of course, I don't discount the possibility that the SP could move suddenly and dramatically in either direction (eg Ann re cap raise or confirmation that UK tort reforms are off the political agenda), but I think it's false to believe the SP somehow 'doesn't belong' where it currently sits or will inevitably slide to one extreme or the other

Denbo mentioned in an earlier post today that he was surprised by the dwindling volumes and stagnant share price. It's been grinding at this level for months now. The volatility has evaporated and the ST traders all seem to have migrated elsewhere

I wonder, is it not possible we have finally reached our equilibrium point. Assuming there are no black swan events, and the co continues to eke out marginal profits, paying off its loan slowly, the cloud of doubt hanging over the company's not worsening, but never really lifting

Perhaps this is just where we landed, the culmination of everything that's happened. A narrow SP band which the market has deemed to represent approximate fair value for the stock, all things considered, for now and the foreseeable future