PLS 1.32% $3.06 pilbara minerals limited

24th October is very close, page-43

  1. 932 Posts.
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    Do the math on this and I think you will find that, if MIN have the ROFR for LI only (July update BOA) then they have a strategic plan as the royalty is chicken feed for a company the size of MIN.

    However to make a decision which way to play, they will need to know current pricing, estimate future cost and factor in the extras such as feasibility and equity participation.

    They will need access to recent spodumene price data to make a decision and they will want time.

    If for example the recent market price of 6% price is closer to 1000usd v the 567usd used in the DFS then MIN will take up the ROFR.

    I have done the math and the BOA at 150usd below long run average over the first six years of production and 140kt is a better NPV than the royalty over life of mine on either 2 or 4 my plant. And this ignores the MIN strategic adavantag e of continuity of supply or increases in pricing over the contract period.

    Unfortunately MIN will have a better understanding of value the longer they have to assess market conditions so I am sorry to say that I expect delaying tactics.

    This is especially the case if there is an option to extend the supply contract.

    My tip. knowing about Mt Marion and NMT is that we will eventually have a partner in MIN unless they take out a junior to secure alternative supply. AJM and CXO or KDR spring to mind. And AJM will allow the most spite!

    Interesting times!

    AIMO
 
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