LYC 0.00% $6.40 lynas rare earths limited

QR benchmarks

  1. 19,584 Posts.
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    Northern Rare Earth’s operating income down 20.64% in Jan-Sept

    "BEIJING (Info-RE) 24-Oct-16 Northern Rare Earth, one of the leading rare earth groups in China, released its quarterly report for the first three months of 2016.

    According to the company’s announcement, its operating revenue in the first three quarters of 2016 was about RMB3.565 billion, down 20.64% from the same months last year. Its operating income in the third quarter this year fell 5.41% from the previous quarter.

    Meanwhile, the company’s net profit in the first nine months was RMB34.34 million, down 88.61% year on year. And its net profit in the third quarter declined 87.45% month on month."

    http://www.info-re.com/index.php?/shop/article/2953

    Nth RE (ex Baotou) holds nearly 60% of Dragon production quotas, 59.5ktpa LRE and closest comparison Lynas/Mt Weld.

    AM Statistics: China’s PrNd oxide producers’ average operating rate slides by 6.69% MOM to 46.81% in August 2016

    Asian Metal reported LRE producers operating < 50% capacity mid Q.

    Zhmag’s performance expected down in Jan-Sept

    "BEIJING (Info-RE) 21-Oct-16 Yantai Zhenghai Manetic Material Co., Ltd (Zhmag) recently announced its expected performance for the first three quarters this year.

    The company said that its performance during January and September was expected to see some reduction from the basis in the corresponding period last year.

    According to the announcement, the fall in the company’s business in high performance NdFeB permanent magnetic materials was cited as the main reason for its performance reduction.

    It explained that selling prices for high performance NdFeB magnets decreased year on year due to the fierce competition in downstream consuming sectors of inverter air-conditioner, wind turbine and elevator.

    In the meantime, the fall in demand for NdFeB magnets from wind turbine industry has also depressed its sales amount for high-performance NdFeB magnets.

    In addition, the company’s sales prices for the magnets in new energy vehicle(NEV) field have also headed down during the reporting period in response to the reduction in production cost in NEV market as well as the adjustment of China’s government policies."

    If anyone can remember, that verifies my conclusions a few weeks ago that the Sino domestic collapse in construction, AC, elevator, service motors, and Wind Gen, after over building in the wrong locations, has had a severe impact of 45% of NdFeB demand internally, and fair chance another 25% into consumer products hasn't been travelling so well either.

    Frankly amazes me those like LC, professing great business wisdom, almost trumpish, choose to vent against Lynas & other posters here rather than using any such claimed wisdom to identify true cause & effect.

    Meantime we are witnessing a remarkable rebirth of ROW demand as evidenced by Dragon RE exports +50% YTD Sept & NdFeB +14.1% YTD August.

    But against that we need to reflect the SCALE of Lynas, potentially now operating @ 15% of Dragon production quotas BUT if they are currently running < 50% capacity does that mean Lynas is currently producing near 30% equivalent by volume??? As ROW demand looks something like the all time 2006 high 57.4kt??? Hardly need a PhD to understand RE market in massive flux.

    FY Fins showed 43% by value being sold into/thru China, back of envelop @ 1200tpQ NdPr I get 60% by value into the Dragon unless there is significant further penetration of the Jap NdFeB mkt.

    Does anyone understand the leverage, delicate geopolitical positioning? If not, ask Packer.

    One of the main issues to look for in the Sept QR is the ability to maintain sales volumes at the higher May/June levels, but broad picture we need to see a sustained improvement in China's domestic activity, some positive reports ST money & construction late August, little point venting here.


 
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