Congrats on your heart Furniture, well deserved.
You and me are long term believers and holders, many will think we are dumb to ride it down from $1+ but I guess I'm old school loyal when there's potentially massive value to be realised from a multi-year hold; have held almost half a decade thus far, sitting right doesn't phase me as long as the strategy, execution and competitive edge is in tact.
If the bio deal was still running we technicaly still had a 17 years runway for Previ Isola at annual (starting) minimums royalties of US$600k = AUD $13.4m over that time... but we settled the contract for a compromised 'now' value plus all IP returned based on Bio's sudden change of tact to be more aggressive to USA market.... so we should get a very good payout before this financial year if we relicense or sell to a new major global player, obviously Bio is hedging their bets by cutting us at our knees right before a new round of increases royalty negotiation (we were due for US $1-1.2m per annum over upcoming 3 year increment period)... we added so much value, and we still have that innovative jackpot factor - hence they remain our largest shareholder despite Bio having the largest microbiology industry market share - that's global testament to the faith in the potential future value of a small Adelaide innovator... Bio keeping 10% LBT shares as insurance=potential buyout
Many new to LBT will be uniformed that LBT makes huge money when it is in 'deal season' - and we are well and truly in hunting season - deals takes time; we can't really predict which quarter we will get that $10m-$20m payout... this quarter and probably the next we quarter will have nil receipts... but by the end of the 2017 financial year we will likely have:
1) Previ Isola (Micorstreak) tech sale/relicense ~$5m to $10m
2) recognition of upfront distribution/marketing rights $10m-$20m via equity accounting method for CSS JV
2017 EPS will thus be lumpy (as was 2016 3.5c), but it will be a factor of last year's EPS imho... 2-3 times 3.5c EPS depending on Brent'a negotiation skills; landing us 'the right deal' = 7 to 10.5c EPS possible
2018 EPS will be much more steady - licensing revenue and JV profit share dividend distribution - maybe potentially be higher than 2017 EPS depending on marketing campaign of our global partner
2019 EPS will be continued growth and Woundvue contribution = a growth compound on 2018 and beyond
The above growth scenario is the reason why I continue to hold, we will be in a monopoly (non competitor) position until 2019 in my opinion, it will take a lot to screw up of value proposition = saving heaps of money to your annual lab budgets (40%), and saving patient lives and improving hospital/treatment care quality by a factor of 3 (3x faster diagnostic results)
Concerning CR fears... If anyone here was around for their 2014 retail raise component - they won't be repeating that mistake by tapping mom and dads - let's face it, there's not much retail capacity/appetite these days - they will most like involve industry partners/instos/SI who will value accordingly and this time it will be a at a premium not a discount imho... i.e. China has 27,000 hospitals alone, if there's a single country that could define LBT's market share China would be their whole target complete...
Understated market share:
LBT seems to have too narrow and conservative market segmentation of 27,00 labs exhibiting high enough volumes of UTI culture plate testing which warrants a significant economic return on an APAS investment... with a focus on AUS, USA, Canada, EU, UK market only...
LBT using a misleadingly low 27,000 target market figure for the past 3 years now - hurts negotiations with global players imho; I think Brent has the appetite and capability to consider and assess Asia as a target market - if China is included, would double the 27,000 figure overnight by factoring in China hospitals alone - assuming each China hospital lab at requiring at least one APAS
Director sell
Only net director sell being, a previous poster describes her as the director with the weird glasses - she is the newest director appointment since Brent, been on for a few years - and is the weakest link in terms of share ownership % and only non Adelaide based director - I wouldn't read too much into her full option conversion partial share sale - she finally now holds some LBT shares vs one month ago when she held none; one could say she is a net buyer and believer if you take a 1+ month poin of view... I was informed a week back that Lusia hadn't m sold any shares since what was reported in the last announcement - she remains our CSS chair, top 5 holder, believer and immensely valuable asset to LBT.
Current state of the thread
The majority of the posts reflect a day trading mentality - I guess there's some who adopt a buy and hold stance; and believe in 'good to great' blue chip company forming scenario... but many seem to be in for the quick buck...
Based on the fundamental realities achieved thus far... LBT deserves a true blue sheen of faith I'd say, and a more loyal/longer term holding pattern imho
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