buy on rumour play 92c, page-5

January should be a very good month for holders of this stock.

I would caution that trade will be volatile and there will be some vicious swings, especially as we move out of January and into February. That said, this stock is definitely on its way up, driven by rumour, speculaton, or whatever.

As to a possible target valuation ahead of the promised March announcement re. AOD9604, I would be wary of either discounting the 2004 high by the stock dilution ratio, and I would also discount any issue regarding potential manufacturing cost of AOD9604 as guides to possible value.

Why?

First, with respect to the issue of stock dilution, we have to keep in mind that in 2004 we did not have another high-potential drug in Phase 2 human trials, with an announcement due not long after the AOD9604 March announcement. This will contribute to the upside to a degree that isn't really possible to know. Also, there has been some movement in the Obesity treatment arena that will begin to force insurers to take a more accommodating attitude toward reimbursement of prescribed pharmaceutical mediation in weight loss that wasn't there in 2004.

Second, with respect to the cost of manufacturing of a lower dose drug, of course that's true, but the cost of maufacturing is only a small fraction of the price build for such a drug. Marketing, advertising, packaging, distribution, research and development, and royalty payments, for example, to say nothing of demand, all will contribute as much or more to the evential price as the bare manufacturing cost.

From a striclty technical perspective, look for $1.20 to $1.30 near term and $1.60 by the end of January, and something north of $2.00 in February with excursions testing the 2004 high.

Just one man's opinion, for what its worth.