@gj0201 - I also have spent a huge amount of time this weekend updating my charts.
The big question is – could we see the end of the long bull market that started in 2007?
If we are only going to have a Brexit like correction, then in the big scheme of things, it will not be of much long term consequence. However, my concern is that unless we can break topside again, then the risks of all the indices rolling over becomes a huge worry -regardless of who wins the US election.
So it is the longer term picture that I am thinking about at the moment.
Looking at some of the shorter term indicators on New York – I know it is getting oversold but not near max levels at the moment. I also remember all too well that the crash in 1987 happened when the market was already getting oversold so the indicators aren’t much help when trying to decide on this type of situation we are facing over the next three days.
Short term the gold price has a big job above 1300 so this shorter term picture is a bit of a worry. However, go out to the longer term and I feel a lot happier. As mentioned on Friday I think gold is going 1475 whoever wins the election (and that is only my next target!)– just the speed at which it gets there is the question.
Looking at Australia, it is impossible to even get past the chart of CBA. If it can’t hold around 70 it is going straight to 50. The boss lives nearby – tempted to pop down and tell him how desperately we need to hold the support!! Telstra looks almost as worrying.
So at the end of the day, I think all we have to watch for is do we have that last mad wave higher where absolutely everyone turns bullish. We never really did see this since the bottom in 2009 or are we running out of time?
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