jr.... we ready for action., page-28

re: leave it alone DOGS OF WAR, OIL AND SOMALIA

Posted By: Arnobius
Date: Sunday, 31 December 2006, 1:46 p.m.

If one desires to understand the recent headlines regarding Ethiopian military incursions into the southern portion of Somalia, you must first understand that what once was a single nation state called Somalia, is in effect currently three entities:

1) Republic of Somaliland
map = www.somalilandgov.com/images/map.gif
2) The Puntland State of Somalia
map = www.puntlandgovt.com/images2/MAP_PUNTLAND.jpg
3) And the southern portion, which includes Mogadiscio, Baidoa and Chisimaio. The TFG (Transitional Federal Government) is, and appears to have won, a battle for control against the ICU (Islamic Courts Union), with the help of the Ethiopian military.

Please take a minute and review the map links, you will notice that the Somaliland Republic (Which has clearly stated that it has no intent of re-uniting with a pan-Somali state) and the Puntland State (Which supports, verbally, a re-unified Somali state, but desires autonomy for Puntland) share a portion of territory that both entities claim, the districts of Sanaag and Sool. This will become important later.

Both the Somaliland Republic and Puntland, have stable and effecient governments in place. Both states are moderate Sunni islamic governments and populations.

The final "local" player is an entity called The Islamic Courts Union...a loose confederation of 11 or 12 "district" islamic "courts" which, in the absense of a government in the south, has endeavored to bring order, albeit through radical Salafist/Wahhabi/Qutbist doctrines, which basically desire a return to the Islamic doctrines in effect before the "modern" era.

In November 2006, a UN arms monitoring group released a report which alledges that the ICU received logistical and military aid from the following countries:
1) Djibouti- Medicine and military uniforms.
2) Egypt- Military training.
3) Eritrea- 28 seperate consignments of arms, ammunitions and military equipment. It is also alledged that Eritrea assigned combat troops to the ICU. An Eritrean transport vessel was also revealed to have fighters from Pakistan and the Oromo Liberation Front of Ethiopia (Fighting a guerilla war for a homeland inside of Ethiopia).
4) Hezbollah- Military training and lobbying efforts for military aid to the ICU by other Islamic states. It is further alledged in the report, that the ICU sent 720 of its fighters to Lebanon to fight along side of Hezbollah.
5) Iran- Arms (including machine guns, grenade launchers and 80 MANPADS SAM), ammunition and other military supplies.
6) Libya, Saudi Arabia and Syria have also sent arms, training and other supplies to the ICU.

What initially got my interest, was why would these Arab / Islamic states be fomenting civil war against its Islamic bretheren? The answer, I believe, is in three parts:

1) Money
2) More money
3) Absolute disinterest in democratically elected, constitutional republics that are Islamic. (Somaliland and Puntland) [Iraq?]..look at the arms suppliers, they are either controlled by a dictator, a monarchy ,or ,are a theocracy.

Now, lets look at the "out of towners":

1) Conoco....Conoco has a long history in the south of Somalia.
It's corporate-Field headquarters in Mogadiscio, was rented to the USG for $6,700 a month during the early 90's for use as an embassy and military HQ. Conoco spent over $16 million in 1990 drilling a test well near Los Anad (See Somaliland map). The efforts were abandoned after losing a portion of the drill string at 10,750 feet. The potential source rock was estimated to be at 14,300 feet. A US Ambassador has claimed to have seen internal Conoco documents which state that sites in the Garoe-Las Anod area are capable of producing 300,000 barrels of oil per day.
For more on Conoco-Somalia-USG collusion, visit this excellent site: www.cod.edu/people/faculty/yearman/somalia.htm

2)Petronas..the largest petroleum company in Malaysia. On 16 October 2006, the Puntland State, sent a delegation of state officials to Petronas headquarters, to present them with opportunities for oil and gas exploration in Puntland.

3)Canmex Minerals Corp (CXM.V) and Range Resources Corp (RRC), on 23 December 2006, the Puntland Parliment unanimously approved a "Production Sharing Agreement" with those two companies. Although it was not stated, I am assuming that the old Conoco stomping grounds is where this oil exploration is headed.
www.puntlandgovt.com/en/currentissues/information/current_issues_more.php?id=108

There is one SMALL problem to peaceful exploitation, however. Remember those maps that I asked you to take a look at? The old Conoco test well was at Las Anod in the Sool district, approximately 20-30 mile inside what would clearly be Somaliland territory.

On 24 March 2006, the Somaliland government made a press release which stated that Somaliland was attacked by Puntland militia. The attacks were in the eastern Sanaag district(Remember the maps), which, according to my old Somali maps, would be at the northern end of the Garoe-Las Anod oil field. Mrs. Edna Adnan Ismail, Somaliland Foreign Minister, stated "..We believe that the aim of the recent aggression from the Puntland region of Somalia..is to chase away the inhabitants of the district of Eastern Sanaag in order to allow foreign companies to illegally prospect for oil deep inside..Somaliland..."
www.somalilandgov.com/Press-Release-Sanaag-24-3-06-1.htm

Did I mention that the Republic of Somaliland has stated that it is an independent state, and has NO interest in a re-unified Somalia? Did I also happen to mention that Puntland State of Somalia, does desire a unified state of Somalia..with Puntland autonomy? Can you say CIVIL WAR OF RE-UNIFICATION ?
www.puntlandgovt.com/en/currentissues/information/current_issues_more.php?id=107

So, what is an unrecognized fledgling republic, Somaliland, to do? Well, how about this:

On 17 August 2006 (5 months after the Puntland attack), the President of Somaliland visited the United Kingdom, as a guest of the British Government, to discuss bilateral and regional issues ! Hmmm, wonder what issues were discussed?
www.somalilandgov.com/home.htm

Did I mention that what is now the Republic of Somaliland was once known as the Somaliland Protectorate under British rule from 1884 until 1960 ?

Oh, by the way, that Canmex, Range Resource, Puntland State "Production Sharing Agreement" mentioned earlier...has a 31 January 2007 "back-out" clause for the companies...That should be enough time for Ethiopian military forces to obliterate the ICU, and allow for a quick and loose "Federal Government" to take shape, just lacking those pesky folks at the Republic of Somaliland.

Did I mention that the Board of Directors at Range Resources is closely watching the recent outbreak of war in southern Somalia?
www.oilvoice.com Scroll down and find the story "Puntland Government Approves Range Resources US50m..."
Yep, I bet that Board of Directors has a "gut feeling" this ICU problem will be wrapped up by 31 January 2007. Yep.

Did I mention, folks, that there is just one thing that I can't figure out about this story? No?

With all of this "tinderbox" waiting for a match to be thrown, why would the United Nations be considering lifting the U.N. arms embargo on Somalia (UN Resolution 1725), and why on earth would Puntland State support such a thing, remember the ICU?
www.puntlandgovt.com/en/currentissues/information/current_issues_more.php?id=83

Hmmm...couldn't be that, the ICU was receiving arms by the boat load from Arab states, this out of the UN's mouth.
Hmmm...Oh, I get it....the Republic of Somaliland (remeber the Garoe-Las Anad oil field) won't be considered "Somalia", unless it were to RE-UNIFY....So, the arms embargo would still be being applied to them!! OK, I'm done