ISD 0.00% 17.0¢ isentia group limited

Ann: Isentia AGM Chairman and CEO Addresses and Trading Update, page-21

  1. 16,716 Posts.
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    "Going to be good buying at some stage surely?"

    Possibly.
    After all, everything has a price.

    But at some 10.5x EV/EBITDA (which is where is stock is now trading - even after today's sahre price crunch) that point of buying is still a way off, in my view.

    Based on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 8x (which is the maximum I suspect the market will now want to pay for this business given this debacle) and even using $60mpa of EBITDA (generously ahead of FY17's implied EBITDA guidance of between $52m and $53m), this works out to an Enterprise Value for the business of $480m.

    Netting off the $50m of Net Debt leaves an equity value of $430m.

    In per share terms, that's a share price of $2.15.
    And that price level, I think, merely represents fair value.

    In order to actually make an investment on under-valuation grounds would require a share price closer to $1.70 (equivalent to 6.5x EV/EBITDA), in my opinion.
 
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