Asian Metal RE prices up again, page-12

Lynas will do well Q3 and Q4 for sure. That’s why I am buying. Q2 will be so so. Maybe negative total cash flow, it depends how much clean up Amanda does on accounts payable. Barely positive earnings. This is not a negative prediction, it is positive. AL has told us repeatedly that almost all product is now under contract. This introduces a 4 to 6 month lag in REE prices rises hitting the bottom line. Prices dropped in August and started rising nicely in Late October Most of the product shipped in Q2 may actually be based on lower prices than Q1. It is a little hard to tell because the sales contracts are new and we have not seen enough to know lag length. Also things Like SX5 line really confuse things.

This is not a negative to Lynas The benefits of sales contracts have many positives and it is well worth the small wait between price rises and a positive change in bottom line. I am buying Lynas, the news is great but why set false expectations for Q2 and first half?

Posting daily positive change and no negative changes is misleading. We need informed investors. Much better to post weekly $ changes or better yet what the ASP for that week would have been.

Right now % are misleading. REE prices have been flat to down for almost a year. Any increase in price shows up as an increase in 30, 90, 180, 360 day %. Which is kind of confusing. IT is why I use a price chart and keep a spreadsheet to enter the prices into once a week it has the Mt Weld ore ratios and what Lynas has been shipping ratios. With this I can make a very good guess for ASP change between any periods. Knowing $ change in ASP allows a quick and accurate guess of bottom line profit. I am pretty sure Lynas’s ASP will be down Q1 to Q2. Without knowing price to Invoice lag it is hard to know by how much. Their first half should have FIRST POSITIVE EARNINGS EVER. The positive is significant the size will be great at the end of the year not now.

I believe Q1 had positive earnings, This was more related to new loan terms than prices but ASP being $17 helped as well. The new loan contract will give Lynas marginal positive earnings for the year even without price increases. Any increase in ASP goes right to bottom line. There will be manufacturing improvements and they go right to bottom line. First half will be the change in direction,(caused by MTK and JARE contract) Q3 and Q4 improvements will be driven by REE price increase as well and this is great.

You have the right and are welcome to post anything you want. Creating wrong expectations for short term results will do more to hurt the SP longer term than any immediate gain. Posting conservative estimates that are exceeded does more to help create excited buyers than optimistic that are not made. Unlike me you have waited yrs for this. Be patient.