Cmon the single well economics just an indicator of profitabilty. Your post was not clear on which assumptions you were challenging.
There is definitely a problem with florence field incremental o&g has 22,000+ acres that is adjacent to Akk's accreage and they have been producing over several years however they have abandoned the development due to low oil price. So i get that this field is not productive as others in eagleford, wolfcamp or wattenberg. IOG was using long horizontal wells.
From what i read the florence field has very steep decline curve, so i was worried that hyperbolic decline curve assumption may be too optimistic. but i overlayed a hyperbolic curve with IOG production curve and i actually found that the assumption is conservative.
With regard to 10 year well development plan. My rough calc assuming they maintain a low g&a $500k pa and achieving mid case single well economics at WTI price $45/bbl. Where year 1 wells pay for year 2 and when they get to year 3 they get to year 3 with 9 producing wells and have enough wells and production to access debt.
I am half inclined to chuck money in this, although i am little cautious about the price of oil and that florence field does not appear to be a prolific oil field, but i like the premise of Akk using cheap vertical deviated wells that intersect the natural fractures.. And they have performed 3D seismic, they have a chance pulling it off. We will wait and see.
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