I saw much the same (ie: could not open any) when I came in this morning, but have been caught in meetings and out of the office for most of the day.
I have printed out a copy of the 1/2 year report and intend going through in some detail (a later post, towards week's end).
I liked some of what I saw, but not everything. I need to test some of the numbers to double check on things.
For now, UEC ended up slightly ahead on EBITDA (compared to some analyst forecasts), but behind on revenue.
My initial concern is that connection fee revenue may not be sufficient to get UEC to the $60m line, if McGrath is talking about a $4m run-rate by year's end.
Going into 2H03, recurrent revenue is $3.8m, coming from a near $3.0m run-rate at the end of 2002.
From what I can see, recurrent revenue comprises core, minus connection fees.
In 1H03, core revenue was $26m, of which connection fees were $5.5m ($1.8m PCP), service fees $16.2m ($12.3m PCP), and broadband internet was $4.3m ($2.7m PCP).
Taking away the connection fees leaves us with $20.5m in recurring revenue, averaging $3.4m across the 6 months. Of this, 1) 1Q03 = $9.5m; and 2) 2Q03 = $11.0m.
In ratio terms, the R/CF ratio (recurrent to connection fee ratio) in Q1 was 3.8, and in Q2 was 3.67. For the half year, it was 3.73.
Taking this a step further, if FY03 revenue is to be $55 -60m, then 2H revenue must be $29 -34m.
Assuming that July starts out @$3.8m recurrent, and december ends up @$4.0m recurrent, means that average recurent revenue for 2H will be $3.9m, or $23.4m for the half.
To this amount, connection fee revenue should be added. Assuming a repeat of the $5.5m for 1H, will get you to $28.9m for the half, or the $55m mark, to be sure.
This, however, is where I have he problem. In 1H, recurrent revenue grew from $3.0m to $3.8m, or 27%, but in 2H, it is expected to grow from $3.8m to $4.0m, or ~5%.
Now, there may not be anything in this, but I would have thought that to get to jfc's 2004 EBITDA levels (etc), recurrent revenue growth should be a lot higher than what it will otherwise be, and connection fee revenue will need to be a lot higher.
For now though, it appears that the EBITDA numbers were helped along by the connection fee revenue, rather than by the recurrent fee revenue.
That said, the result vindicated some of what jfc has been saying, but not all. UEC is still lacking a growth driver in the engine room and, therefore, needs to win a number of new contracts during 2H in order to carry its momentum forward.
It was also interesting to note that UEC confirmed today that interest on their financing facility was fixed @8%.
CAPEX in 2H was $22.5m, comprising $8.1m in 1Q and $14.4m in 2Q.
Cash at the end of 1H was $724K.
Expenses comrpised: 1) staff 1Q = $3.65m 2Q = $3.25m 1H03 = $6.9m 1H02 = $6.1m Delta = +13%. * What is strange here is the disparity between 1Q and 2Q figures, given that today's report noted an increase in staffing levels to 145.
