Actual 2P reserves is 130 PJ, not 175. The 175 figure comes from the old gross JV reserves prior to the March Mereenie upgrade, of which CTP only had 115.
This whole topic has been discussed here, after the Mac offer was announced:
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-trading-halt.3033350/page-3#post-20595296
Probably don't need to discuss it in detail again without new information.
The net margin may be $2+/GJ as Bobham says but in terms of NPV per GJ I've almost never seen a gas project with a full cycle NPV of $2/GJ or higher. Discount factor tends to thump you because your capex is all up front but your revenue is spread out over years.
As I said in the other thread, for the actual developed 2P, if CTP can connect to a high price east coast gas market with regulated pipeline tariffs, the NPV may be north of $1.50/GJ because it'll be high margin with basically no capex required to get it, but all the growth prospects will require capex and also need a risk factor on top of that. Overall 50c seems reasonable fair value for CTP IMO.
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