Hi krusty,
I've probably seen over 100 posts where you've shown dissatisfaction with the SP over the last 12 months (and your not alone) so let's take a look at it.
I personally believe it's a very human trait to push aside logic when money's involved, most people do it.
I'm quite sure if shareholders who've got issues with the SP sat down and actually went over every aspect of the last 2 years of Alexium the business and looked at it in hindsight, they'd probably realise that there's virtually nothing proven to lift and hold a SP above the current price, the constant focus on SP for Alexium has been a real eye opener for me personally, It means that if I ever invest in a business like Alexium again, I'll need to take the perception of other investors into consideration, this has not been a problem with any other investment I've previously held but I think the secrecy (for want of a better word) of this business model has left some investors who've not been able to use normal research methods continually anxious about their investment, which means sentiment can and has changed at the drop of a hat, and most of the time due to uncertainty.
Let's look at what we're dealing with here.
Alexium has a business model that doesn't allow the identity of our customers to be named (in most cases), so pretty much all the contracts that we acquire can't be researched and proven beyond a doubt, usually you can just google the company who our company's got a contract through and you then have undeniable proof of the collaboration, we can't do that for several well recognised reasons, and I'm quite sure this is the main reason for the 'sell the news' that we've seen over the last 12-18 months (many people wonder why that happens).
So how can the SP rise, to me it simply needs the sort after proof of customer acquisition and business performance, as the normal avenues of being able to research the size of our customers businessess and the likely financial gains they could represent to Alexium have been removed from our sight, it limits the way we can get definitive proof of business performance, it really only leaves one way to be certain, and that's through our financials stating in black and white that we have actually received revenue, this is the main reason I've been stating for a long time that revenue will push the SP.
In other businesses where you can guarantee business performance without needing evidence of revenue (where we have the businesses name and can we can use other research methods to see how much Alexium could possibly gain out of the deal), the SP might then be able to rise and hold a loftier status, it's simply not the case with Alexium (and indeed proven revenue is nearly always a SP mover in any company).
Alexium stated last year a couple of times that they would name some customers, this was a contentious issue for a long time when it didn't eventuate, instead management started saying it couldn't release names for several reasons, keeping a competitive edge and our customers not wanting the public to think they were buying toxic products previously are a couple of good examples, so again that leaves us with no avenue to value our companies deals and contracts and the potential it has for Alexium, the path management have either been forced to use or have chosen to use (they've previously stated that most of our customers don't want to be named) has IMO led to the SP stagnation and volitility over the last 18 months (including the high of $1.17), I'm not in a position to judge if this was the best or even the only path the company could've used or not (we pay an excellent management team to deal with these exact issues), but in the end if the company proves itself and all these deals come to undeniable fruition via revenue in the financial reports, I don't think the company will be any worse off in the long run, yes our investments could've looked better on paper over the last 12 months, but looking better on paper is not as important as the reality of where things are with business performance.
I've posted several times before on my thoughts as to what the company should be doing in respect to its own longevity (here is one such post).
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/18319209/single
So to sum it all up, IMO one could only conclude that there's nothing definitive produced up until the last 4C to hold the SP up, the good news is that all the nervous waiting should now be behind us, we will still have to wait for quarterly reports every 12 weeks, but that waiting should change from nervous waiting to waiting with an anticipation on great news.
It's already proven that what the company's been saying is factual (via the last 4C), I'm not talking about exact money amounts on a specific date, IMO we'll probably be 6-8 weeks out on our (nearly) 13 month projected target issued on the 16-12-15, it's not a big deal, What I am talking about is the company for the very first time has been able to show proof of its business performance with a very respectable last 4C, we've had our first taste of proof and it should now continue on a quarterly basis, hopefully with continued quarter on quarter growth.
I'd expect that any company in a huge growth phase as we are won't be able to be valued precisely as its continually changing through growth and all the costing metrics continually change, but having said that I believe we should get a rough valuation starting after the half yearly report that should value us north of where our SP currently sits, this means that although the valuation metrics will still be very rough, it should eliminate much of the volitility from the SP, the company will have at the very least a rough valuation, something we don't currently have IMO.
6 weeks until EOY.
Things should look very rosy every 12 weeks from here on out!
Cheers.
