The good the bad and the ugly, page-3

After todays fall:

EV = $900m + $2.67bn + $3.5bn

Underlying EBITDA
FY17 ~$450

If we assume $500m in FY18 EBITDA the business still trades on an EV/EBITDA multiple of ~7 which is neither here nor there.

However it still appears slightly expensive if you factor in:

- Nextgen Integration Risk
- MTU Integration Risk
- Elevated churn rates
- NBN margin compression
- KMP Risk

On valuation terms I wouldn't expect a bounce but will be following closely given the quality of the underlying assets. I suspect the $186m forecast capex for FY17 would have come as a shock to many, IMO this was almost as significant as the nextgen update.