repost of march 2006: why i am strong on this stoc, page-2

Deep down there is the great uncertainty that this drug may not be a goer. For it to be a goer it would have to be shown to work on those who are becoming larger as they get on. Is it not in fact a drug whose aim is to readjust the gene responsible for weight gain in people due to the deterioration of the natural weight control system.
The last trial was inconclusive and rightly so. There is also a very good chance that the trial just concluded may be inconclusive or be a failure. There are many reasons one could think of for this. One of these may be that the trial is restricted to doses at 1mg or lower. Higher doses it seems may have been abandoned for this trial.

Needless to say there are also difficulties due to the possibility that even if the drug was effective that it may have a different effect in different individuals. As such the results would once again prove inconclusive.

As well as the above one might ask the question as to whether it has any chance of working at all due to its very unusual mechanism. Previous trials had proven to be inconclusive. Hence we have a new trial.

I would advocate great care here. As most of the experienced traders know unless the results prove to be unexpectedly great then MBP's share price will be back at 40c rather quickly.

With great results then it may be around 70c till the phase 3 trial completes in around 15 months time.

My observations and predictions are based on my involvent in a number of biotechs in the past. The hype and activity disappear very quickly and the share price reflects reality even quicker. With luck we would see this drug being sold and making money for MBP in around 4 years time.