price predictions before and after the demerger..., page-23

Would be interesting to see how the trading in NUP started. You have to bear in mind that ARU (ex) will be trading for 9 days without a price indication for NUP (trading commences at 5/3/07).

If we all predict a price between 0.80$ and 1.00$ for NUP ARU (ex) will go done at about this range of 0.27$ and 0.33$ within the 9 trading days before NUP starts trading.

The people who are buying ARU (cum) just because of NUP won't sell ARU (ex) below the .27$ reduction. So if we take Monday morning as a starter (let's say at 0.78$) ARU (ex) should not fall below 0.45$-0.50$. This is supported by the latest run of Lynas that helped ARU a bit and accounted partly for the run we already had from the mid 40ies during the rights issue phase.

Bottom line is:

ARU (cum) 1.05$ (19/2/2007) at close
ARU (ex) 0.75$ (20/02/2007) at close
NUP 0.75$ (05/03/2007) at close

Not sure how the prices are detemined and what dates you are referring to (closing?/average daily?/opening?/maximum?/miminum?)

GLTA

Lenni