A2 on China top 3 infant formula brands (screenshot), page-19

Just doing some analysis of the A2M October update..

In October, revenue was $42.7m (4Q $155.2m - 3Q $112.5m).
EBITDA margin for the 4 months to October was 22.87%.
Therefore October EBITDA was $9.77m. That gives an annualised EBITDA of NZ$117.19m and NPAT ~$82m (A$78.81m). EPS = 11c and PE = 21

Obviously the October month had "significant seasonal build for key China sales event 11/11/ Singles Day".

To get a low-ball FY target, perhaps use the average revenue for the 3 months to September - $37.5m ($155.2 / 3).

Average monthly EBITDA for these months was $8.58m (using 22.87%). That gives an annualised EBITDA of NZ$102.92m and NPAT ~$72m (A$69.26m). EPS = 9.67c and PE = 23.88

Hopefully A$70m NPAT is a minimum.

Also, demand seems to still be high. All stages of A2 currently sold out at Chemist Warehouse and Priceline.