Why I am not buying FRM, page-29

MarsC as i've said before I think your right regarding the pricing power of FRM.
I'm not sure I agree as much with the mean reversion of grain prices. Its a risk but I always use the spot prices (not only because you can't forecast actual prices but because the futures prices are set off the spot price).

I also agree that book value or a slight premium to book value is what FRM should be trading for. The barriers to entry arent high enough for it to trade at too high a premium. (If it trades at 2x book value how will it compete with a new company that can enter the industry and purchase farms AT book value). Yes there is some infrastructure etc but its not that high.

What I think your missing is that a lot of long term holders bought for the exact reason your talking about. This stock was well UNDER book value (actually not even 3 years ago so medium term holders).

At $1.60 maybe the original thesis is closed and I should sell out but there is a substantial capital gain which means I dont get the full $1.60 and secondly FRM are earning very good money at the moment (as you point out maybe due to the cyclical performance of inputs). However it this sustains for just 4 years the stock will be back at NTA. I'm a happy holder at NTA. Commodity type business but well run and I like the exposure for other reasons.

Food for thought and really good post and summary.