VPC - Daily Discussion, page-656

ok I have added a few scenarios with Saas growth of 30% , 50% , 75% & 100%. What I can now see is the market is currently giving us a PE multiple of 3.5 which is very low see link https://stockrow.com/CRM/competitors Salesforce has a PE of 243 . Looking at the data I would say to avoid another small CR we need to see SaaS growth above 50% or costs need to come down and at the moment is probably the main reason for the suppressed SP and a PE of only 3.5. Sustained Q on Q growth even at 30% should be rewarded with an increasing PE multiplier which I have guessed at but I think it is what the market would do . So the main focus for Rusty is to get that growth number for SaaS up above 50% without increasing cost . To be fair to him this is what he has been doing with the 4 pillars just how well he has been doing we will find out.

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5	Column 6	Column 7	Column 8	Column 9	Column 10	Column 11	Column 12	Column 13	Column 14	Column 15	Column 16
0	Q	SaaS Rev	DD Rev	Saas Growth Q on Q	DD Growth Q on Q	Revenue $ mil	Cost $ mil	Cash from CR	Earnings per Q	Earnings per Y	Growth	PE	EV	Cash	MC	SP
1		0.075	0.43	30%	20%	0.50	1.50	1.50	0.50	2.00		3.5	7.0	5.5	13	1.8
2	Jan-17	0.10	0.51	30%	20%	0.61	1.53	1.53	0.61	2.43	22%	3.75	9.1	4.0	13	1.9
3	Apr-17	0.13	0.61	30%	20%	0.74	1.56	1.56	0.74	2.96	48%	4	11.8	2.4	14	2.0
4	Jul-17	0.16	0.73	30%	20%	0.90	1.59	1.59	0.90	3.60	80%	4.25	15.3	0.8	16	2.3
5	Oct-17	0.21	0.88	30%	20%	1.10	1.62	1.62	1.10	4.38	119%	4.5	19.7	5.5	25	3.6
6	Jan-18	0.28	1.06	30%	20%	1.34	1.66	1.66	1.34	5.34	167%	5	26.7	3.8	31	4.4
7	Apr-18	0.36	1.27	30%	20%	1.63	1.69	1.69	1.63	6.52	226%	5.5	35.9	2.2	38	5.5
8	Jul-18	0.47	1.52	30%	20%	1.99	1.72	0.40	0.67	2.68	299%	15	40.2	0.4	41	5.9
9	Oct-18	0.61	1.83	30%	20%	2.44	1.76	0.00	0.68	2.73	388%	20	54.5	0.0	55	7.9
10
11	Q	SaaS Rev	DD Rev	Saas Growth Q on Q	DD Growth Q on Q	Revenue $ mil	Cost $ mil	Cash from CR	Earnings	Earnings per Y	Growth	PE	EV	Cash	MC	SP
12		0.075	0.43	50%	20%	0.50	1.50	1.50	0.50	2.00		3.5	7.0	5.5	13	1.8
13	Jan-17	0.11	0.51	50%	20%	0.62	1.53	1.53	0.62	2.49	25%	4.5	11.2	4.0	15	2.2
14	Apr-17	0.17	0.61	50%	20%	0.78	1.56	1.56	0.78	3.12	56%	5.5	17.2	2.4	20	2.8
15	Jul-17	0.25	0.73	50%	20%	0.99	1.59	1.59	0.99	3.95	98%	6.5	25.7	0.8	26	3.8
16	Oct-17	0.38	0.88	50%	20%	1.26	1.62	1.62	1.26	5.04	152%	7.5	37.8	5.5	43	6.2
17	Jan-18	0.57	1.06	50%	20%	1.63	1.66	1.66	1.63	6.51	225%	8.5	55.3	3.8	59	8.5
18	Apr-18	0.85	1.27	50%	20%	2.12	1.69	1.69	2.12	8.49	325%	10	84.9	2.2	87	12.5
19	Jul-18	1.28	1.52	50%	20%	2.80	1.72	0.40	1.48	5.93	461%	20	118.5	0.4	119	17.1
20	Oct-18	1.92	1.83	50%	20%	3.75	1.76	0.00	1.99	7.97	650%	35	278.9	0.0	279	40.2
21
22	Q	SaaS Rev	DD Rev	Saas Growth Q on Q	DD Growth Q on Q	Revenue $ mil	Cost $ mil	Cash from CR	Earnings	Earnings per Y	Growth	PE	EV	Cash	MC	SP
23		0.075	0.43	75%	20%	0.50	1.50	1.50	0.50	2.00		3.5	7.0	5.5	13	1.8
24	Jan-17	0.13	0.51	75%	20%	0.64	1.53	1.53	0.64	2.57	28%	5	12.8	4.0	17	2.4
25	Apr-17	0.23	0.61	75%	20%	0.84	1.56	1.56	0.84	3.37	68%	7	23.6	2.4	26	3.7
26	Jul-17	0.40	0.73	75%	20%	1.14	1.59	1.59	1.14	4.55	127%	10	45.5	0.8	46	6.7
27	Oct-17	0.70	0.88	75%	20%	1.58	1.62	0.80	0.76	3.04	217%	20	60.9	0.0	61	8.8
28	Jan-18	1.23	1.06	75%	20%	2.29	1.66	0.00	0.63	2.53	358%	30	75.9	0.0	76	10.9
29	Apr-18	2.15	1.27	75%	20%	3.42	1.69	0.00	1.73	6.94	585%	35	242.8	0.0	243	35.0
30	Jul-18	3.77	1.52	75%	20%	5.29	1.72	0.00	3.57	14.28	959%	40	571.2	0.0	571	82.2
31	Oct-18	6.60	1.83	75%	20%	8.42	1.76	0.00	6.67	26.67	1585%	45	1200.1	0.0	1200	172.8
32
33	Q	SaaS Rev	DD Rev	Saas Growth Q on Q	DD Growth Q on Q	Revenue $ mil	Cost $ mil	Cash from CR	Earnings	Earnings per Y	Growth	PE	EV	Cash	MC	SP
34		0.075	0.43	100%	20%	0.50	1.50	1.50	0.50	2.00		3.5	7.0	5.5	13	1.8
35	Jan-17	0.15	0.51	100%	20%	0.66	1.53	1.53	0.66	2.64	32%	5	13.2	4.0	17	2.5
36	Apr-17	0.30	0.61	100%	20%	0.91	1.56	1.56	0.91	3.65	82%	7	25.5	2.4	28	4.0
37	Jul-17	0.60	0.73	100%	20%	1.33	1.59	1.59	1.33	5.34	167%	10	53.4	0.8	54	7.8
38	Oct-17	1.20	0.88	100%	20%	2.08	1.62	0.80	1.26	5.03	316%	20	100.6	0.0	101	14.5
39	Jan-18	2.40	1.06	100%	20%	3.46	1.66	0.00	1.80	7.21	592%	30	216.2	0.0	216	31.1
40	Apr-18	4.80	1.27	100%	20%	6.07	1.69	0.00	4.38	17.52	1114%	35	613.2	0.0	613	88.3
41	Jul-18	9.60	1.52	100%	20%	11.12	1.72	0.00	9.40	37.60	2125%	40	1504.0	0.0	1504	216.6
42	Oct-18	19.20	1.83	100%	20%	21.03	1.76	0.00	19.27	77.08	4105%	45	3468.6	0.0	3469	499.5