takeover more likely than ever

The current enormous under-performance of NCM v its peers apparently due to the rumoured problems at Telfer has provided us all with a huge opportunity to buy the best value large gold stock in the world.

Assuming the rumours are true, history shows that NCM will duly deal with the problem(s) and before long have Telfer operating at or very close to where it should be.

WHATEVER THE PROBLEM....IT WILL BE TEMPORARY.

However the FACTS as to why NCM is the best large gold producer globally remain and include:
-NCM is very near the low end of the global gold-producers cost curve;
-NCM expects gold production of 1.8m.oz+ this FY 2006/07 and copper production of approx.100,000 tonnes(220m.lbs) again;
-NCM's hedge-book obligations last year(2005/06) resulted in just 33,000oz of 1.5 million oz of gold production being sold at spot prices with the rest at A$564/oz, being A$144/oz below the average spot gold price of A$708 for 2005/06;
-Similiarly for copper, only about 10,000 tonnes out of 100,000 tonneswas sold at spot copper prices, with the 90,000 tonne(198 million lbs) hedge obligation fetching a paltry A$2.22 being close to A$1.50/lb less than the 2005/06 avg. spot copper price of A$3.69;
-Given that just 700,000oz of gold and 36,000 tonnes of copper are hedged this year(ie2006/07), NCM should easily double and may well triple last year's NPAT of A$130 million;
-NCM hold in excess of 20 years production in reserves(with 33m.oz of gold and 2.4m.tonnes of copper) AND over 30 years production in resources(59m.oz of gold and 5.5m.tonnes of copper).......this is a position UNMATCHED by any other major gold producer in the world;
-Current levels of production for the other largest gold producers globally is NOT SUSTAINABLE and therefore rationalisation has and will continue;
-This places ever GREATER IMPORTANCE ON THE VALUE GENERATED BY NCM's PROVEN AND CONTINUED ABILITY TO DISCOVER NEW RESERVES/RESOURCES FASTER THAN IT's RATE OF PRODUCTION(at an average cost of A$13/oz.);
-Therefore, NCM's "Production Pipeline" continues to grow organically and the quality size of both NCM's mines/projects and land holdings should ensure this continues;

When I started to type this note, NCM was approx.$23.70, now I see the markets getting the message that NCM HAS NEVER BEEN A MORE ATTRACTIVE(arguably irresistable)TAKEOVER TARGET THAN IT CURRENTLY IS.

BUY NCM and/or hold NCM calls when the takeover occurs and reap the huge benefits.....NCM should not be taken over for less than $35+/share

Do not let this opportunity pass!