You are not all wrong - but I would prefer to take the pain over the next 8 months to see how much inroad operations can make into the debt pile. If the directors are acting in the interests if the shareholders , I presume that is where they would want to take us.
It is also true that if WIP write downs prove to be OTT - EPS showing this year should please. If so vulture funds may find any such deal much more expensive . Although vultures are vultures - they are presumably pragmatic and any deal which hammers shareholders too much would hamper prospects for sailing into calm sea.
While various outcomes are possible , methinks you are still just encouraging fear needlessly.
Mirabile dictu I am becoming more optimistic on SGH prospects. I too would like to see a tidy up debt equity swap but first I want to see how much net cash can be generated in 2017. A swap for $150M debt would bring about a VERY much more attractive outcome for shareholders . If SGH can make inroads into the debt pile from operations / 10% shrinkage/ in 2017....... well you know very well that the directors have a duty to try to ensure investors are not hammered. I think a tidy up smaller debt/equity swap in early 2018 is more likely than your alarmist fig.
We are both right - there is however mist. It does seem unlikely that the directors will jump at a really bad deal if they can do a lot better. No doubt we shall continue in 2017 In the meantime :-
An' we’ll tak' a right gude-wullie waught,
for auld lang syne.
Mel
SGH Price at posting:
23.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held