Has it fed?
Based on what zinc price assumption?
I think you will more than likely remember that the majority of the offtake was to be fixed.Commercial terms and framework of the offtake had been agreed upon in the LOI.
Valuations have been put on Perkoa that go from
25c/share @ 68c/lb of Zn
to
62c/share @ $1.40/lb of Zn
in the Lonsec report.
Not only this,these valuations were also based on a dilution with another 170 million shares.Due to the previous strength of the sp when this issue was done (at 29c/share)it therefore only required another 81 million shares approx.So you can up these valuations by around 8% again.
But if you do want to discuss the value based on the NPV,just what was the NPV at the time zinc was $4,500/lb?AIM quoted US$456M at a zinc price of $4,000/lb and Zn went to US$4,500/lb.If we assume the NPV went another 10% to around US$500M on the basis of the further 12% that the price of Zn went then you end up with a PEAK NPV of AUS$640M(based on exchange rate of .78).
So if one does indeed halve the NPV you get Aus$320M which gives a fully diluted sp of 35c/share.So its still well undervalued if you want to go this way on valuation.
BUT then holders have already been told that the majority of the offtake will be fixed as already mentioned which would once again up the valuation substantially.
The main thing that worries me is what kind of effect this major correction in the Zn price will have on the ability for them to raise the cash via the C/note issue.NPV valuations really dont figure in the scheme of things until they actually get all the offtake/finance details sorted and one can put a solid valuation on the project.
Talking NPV's at this stage is purely promo/ramp-deramp stuff which is why the company was using these figures at the presentations imo.
I think it might be prudent to come back with some figures once they actually have some figures for us to base a discussion on!
d.
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