the past two weeks and whats next, page-3

No doubt there are a rather large number of assumptions in my thinking on this, but there area also some facts.

At the end of the day, it will depend on whether or not the number of folks willing to pay a premium to get in on the deal exceed the number of people willing to offer a discount to get out.

My basic assumpion is that with the timing of the trading halt unknown, those wanting to get out will be driven by fear of losing their profit to do so now, while prices are falling, and those wanting to ride through the halt will come in late after prices have been driven down by the exiters, and this will drive a runup into the halt.

I also believe that is a fair description of what actually happened in late 2004.