starting the climb back, page-33

miyoko...(and exberliner1)...

Here are my quick back-of-envelope numbers, firstly for the "immenent JORC and secondly for the likely "guesstimated target resource"...

Statistics
Shares: 34m
Escrow: 17m shares
Options: 7m (20c 31-12-2011 - unlisted)
Acquisition options (new): 5m
Total script = 46m (fully diluted)
Free float (assumed): about 2m shares at current prices, expected to increase to 3m at $1 and 4m at $1.50...then reduce to 2m at $2+

JORC assumptions (from limited data at hand)...

Strike = 600m (from existing drilling extent)
Width = 80m (apparent multiple zones combined)
Depth = 30m (basic interpolation, open)
Specific gravity = 3.7 (high grade zinc impacts here)
Grade = 8% (assumed allowing for internal dilution)

Resource...600x80x30x3.7=5,328,000 tonnes

5.328m x 8%zn = 426,240 tonnes of contained metal.

Assume 90% recoverable = 383,616 tonnes

Current Zn price (approx) = AUD$4,500/t x 383,616 tonnes = AUD$1,726,272,000

Given the high grade shallow nature of the resource, I am inclined to use a 5% in-situ value here, which gives us an approximate value (for a JORC resource), of AUD$86m just for the Zinc project.

OVR get 90% of this, reducing the number to $77.4m, which equates to a fully diluted price of $1.68 per share just for this project.

Total potential...

Obviously unknown, but given what we have seen, basic assumptions can perhaps be made here.

So...given the geochem appears to be offset from the high grade intersections in places, but also coinciding in others, it may be fair not to put too much emphasis on continuation of strike for the entire 2km geochem target zone...so perhaps a doubling of the previous 600m strike may only be applicable, along with say a doubling of depth, but a 30% reduction in combined width of mineralistion, along with a general reduction in grade down to say 5%Zn...

We get...1200x56x60x3.7=14,918,400 tonnes

With grade at 5% = 745,920 tonnes Zn x 90% = 671,328 tonnes Zn

At AUD$4,500 = AUD$3,020,976,000 ($3b) x 5% = AUD$151m...x90% gives us $2.95 per share.

Haven't even looked at the Cu side of things yet!

As always, I tend to look at the positive side of things...we will need a lot more work to get to the higher numbers...but in the interim, it will be interesting what the JORC resource comes up with.

In my view however, OVR at 60s is a bit like what SRK was at 50c...need to be a little patient and not allow ourselves to be shaken out on every correction that takes place a long the way.

Look at the SRK chart for a clue to likely trading patterns.

Cheers!