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18/01/17
08:58
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Originally posted by ds
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Hey A65 - thats why I don't think it was a prop but genuine buying interest after all.
Akki's comment about the buyer at 2c being a prop at first look seemed pretty accurate except that at the time it was right on the trading level so had a high likihood of getting hit if anyone wanted to sell. A prop order is one that is placed close enough to market to be noticed but the buyer doesn't actually want to buy stock but instead wants others to see the large order and buy ahead of it driving the price higher so the person who placed the prop bid can sell at a higher price and then cancel the unfilled prop bid below. (FWIW it is illegal and ASIC and broking houses do monitor it - I know as I have been queried on orders in the past - all my orders are always real though so I told them to stop interfering and acknowledge that it is an illiquid market as I was trying to genuinely buy stock.)
Anyway - today it looked like that bid below that previously looked a bit sus and maybe didn't have any real intention of buying actually moved up to the market price and is happily buying at about 2.6c/2,7c so I believe they are genuine buyers and are now chasing the stock. At least thats the way I see it has played out - Akki sees it differently. Now it looks more like a failed attempt to get a block of stock around 2c and they have just bit the bullet and paid up.
A few more points - it is excruciatingly painful buying this stock slowly - it takes weeks in sub million share amounts so I can understand trying the big bid in one go and seeing if someone takes the opportunity of liquidity. It was a low probability of success and in this case it didn't work but it also probably gave them the confidence to be willing to pay a higher price - basically no one with 10m+ was willing to sell at that price - in fact there wasn't much all the way up to 3c which is what eventually happened - and we have finally hit some liquidity - so the buyer seems to be taking it.
All just my interpretation - what we don't know is whether the buyer just wants that amount in which case it could end up fizzling and falling back to 2c and look pretty weak (in which case another one of my genuine orders will be filled!) or this might just be the start and they begin a program of buying that keeps it getting stronger.
I obviously believe it's going up but I have thought that for 2 years so I've been wrong for at least 95% of the time . . .
FInally your comment about ringing around to see who wants to sell 10m - it's unlikely for a bunch of reasons -
1. All the top holders have increased their holdings over the past year so low probability of success.
2. How do you even get their contact details?
3. If someone rang you wanting to buy 10m your conspiracy theorist tin foil hat would be going nuts that they know something you don't
So I would just say it was a failed attempt to get someone to make the impulse decision to grab liquidity and it didn't work so now they are doing what they would have to have done anyway which is pay a higher price.
Hope that all makes sense.
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Thanks DS, great reading and certainly does make sense. Maybe i can screw up that tin foil hat after all. Im worried the run might be coming to an end because im tempted to buy more, usually a sure sign lol.
One of the reasons im still slightly underwater is because i bought more on that original omomyc result thinking it was off and running.
It will be interesting to see how far it can go from here, some of the earlier buying did feel like one person trying to take a position but feels a bit more like multiple interested parties now. Ultimately they do seem to be working themselves and with collaborators on several very interesting paths and any one could prove lucrative if a new deal or partner steps up. The technology has appeared great since the endosomal escape claims were made but it seemed no one was convinced for a long time. Hopefully that is changing as this still seems to be the key.