I think I have finally got the recent market behaviour figured out.
The charts below shows the DJIA GFC super trend (see blue trend lines). For 2015 and 2016 we have been in a subtrend that is trending up within the GFC super trend (see black trend lines).
The red trend lines, within the subtrend, show how the DJIA has been consolidating within the subtrend. i.e. moving from the resistance line to the support line. (I have drawn these all with the same gradient).
The current consolidation trend looks like it could last another 3 months.
Conclusion: the GFC super trend remains in play and could deliver a 22,200 target for the DJIA by the end of 2017 (assuming the US economy continues to perform well). The market is currently consolidating within a subtrend which can be expected to last until the end of March.
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