You're right. These high Ni prices wont last....They're going to be considered cheap pretty soon.
Ni will hit $20 plus.
There is simply a supply/demand imbalance and you can't just bring extra supply on immediately. So, while I agree with you in the long term, in the short to medium term, Ni can go to the moon.
You're also right, Ni substitutes will be looked at closely, however I don't believe any such thing exists at the present time. Ni is required for Stainless Steel and the world is hungry.
MCR WILL hit $4.
The longer-term story depends on how good Carnilya Hill and other new projects are and how good management is at bringing them online in a timely fashion.
I'll re-assess MCR at $4, but until then, I see it as undervalued.
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