stargate you have to take some of the emotion out of your investing if you want success in the market. you sound upset which puts you at risk of panic selling at the bottom before earnings turn upwards, and it puts you at risk of buying other over valued stocks out of panic that you will miss out on profits.
as others mentioned, you need to read mantra's last few annual and hy reports, read some opinions of analysts and their target prices, look through the fundamentals (eg simply wall street has a free learner app with basic analysis), look at the technicals, look what the institutions are doing (accumulating, shorting, etc), look what the directors are doing (buying, selling, etc), look at the pedigree and experience of the management team (read about them), look at external short term reasons for sp drop (eg currency headwinds, broader market corrections), look for dilution due to capital raisings or acquisitions.
then, finally and least importantly, look at the technical analysis. the technicals tell you what the rest of the market thinks, and the rest of the market has a larger collective wisdom than you, so always be careful about thinking you can outsmart it.
i did all this, and came to the conclusion that mantra is worth around 3.50 (accepting that it is extremely conplex and difficult to assess intrinsic value for most companies). i watched it for the last 6months and jumped on board today when it hit 2.86.
i am not too interested in the lack of key support levels, because i can see that short interest is dropping, and that it has dropped around 20-25% below its intrinsic value with little justification to do so. as a high profile stock with good tourism tailwinds, good acquisition and development prospects, good capital efficiency, a reasonable divi, a likely softening in the aud over 2017 (as us rates go up and the mining mini boom slows) and an impending hy report as a catalyst for an upward re rating, i think the upside outweighs the downside here.
the key risks are airbnb and the underperformance of the cbd serviced apartments, but the cbd issue is already factored in to the share price and the earnings forecasts and the airbnb issue appears over hyped to me (i use both airbnb and peppers/ mantra and they are different although overlapping markets).
my conclusion was that despite bearish sentiment, this is a great company represents good value for a medium term 2-3 year hold. i will set a stop loss at around 10-15% below my entry point to take the fear and emotion out if it declines further (on the back of a bad report). i will also set a stop profit target at around 3.80-3.90 around 10-15% above my fair estimate in case it over-shoots beyond fv up too quick, so i can take profit then buy back later once it corrects (always does). if it rises steadily over 6-12mo towards my price target on good fundamentals, then i will modify it upwards.
i could go into more detail but ive waffled long enough. hope that helps you going forward.
i guess my point (similar to thunderhead and others) is that the only way you can make money is by doing some fundamental research and looking for a company which you believe is mispriced, buying it on a dip at least 10-20% below fv when sentiment is negative, then being brave and patient and unemotional enough to trust your decision even if it drops a bit more, but being disciplined wnough to cut your losses if it drops below your stop loss threshold and move on.
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