The p/e of 2 is projected ratio for next 12 months, based on recent figures. Usually the market adjusts to this eventually if it is correct, however for some reason there is uncertainty. The recent BCI news gave fy2107 guidance of projected ebitda and the market adjusted price now 70% up. AGO management has not given any guidance for fy2017 ebitda and there seems to difficulty working out the actual figures to a degree of accuracy, or the market is discounting the value of stock due to falling production in 12months, obviously but by how much?
The qtr was old news and IO price is up US$10 on average since, which is 160mill us dollar per yr ebitda extra. Assuming it trades at a ev/ebitda of 4, which is half the big boys of bhp rio fmg, then that should equate to an extra 640 mill mcap or 640/9145=7cents, on top of the Dec Qtr results. But the market, being irrational, reacted to the news of the qtr results and discounted the price.
Thats the way I figure it, the market has not adjusted to this months average IO price increase yet......still think its an absolute bargain buy, but have a loook at FMS , just reached 250mill mcap and needs 5bill infrastructure spend before it generates any cash flow, or p/e of infinity.
AGO Price at posting:
4.7¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
