the trough, page-11

Sorry - one more thing before I get slated for inconsistency.

In the post above, I said 'having reached my previous target of ~14c I consider APG a hold'. Yet the previous target I actually posted was 9.3c - 11.8c, reflecting a probably range of 60%-80% probably of a 60k tpa ERMS plant being built (value = 7.3c - 9.8c per share) , plus a 25% probability of an EARS process opportunity (value = 2c per share).

So I want to take a second to explain the difference:

My 14c target is based on:
1. Keeping the same value estimate for the EARS process (i.e. 2c per share); but

2. Increasing the estimated NPV for a 60k tpa ERMS plant from $76m to $126m - to reflect the new (well actually old info) I found in the 2005 MD presentation.

Assuming the same range 60%-80% probability, this equates to a per share ERMS value of 12.1c - 16.2c.

Adding the 2 together (EARS + ERMS) you get a current fair value of 14.1 - 18.2c per share.

Regards,
Fergus