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83.0¢ red hawk mining limited

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Mutley8

2,722 Posts.

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06/02/17

17:40

Post #: 22406444
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Originally posted by Amused observer ↑

It is highly unlikely there will be a takeover offer FMS by any other party, the last takeover was TIO and it was launched in March 2016 as an unconditional off-market offer soon after a small private placement to OCJ was done and with some on-market purchases it pushed OCJ holding to 19.93% from a previous 14.91%. This possibly triggered TIO to make the offer as it diluted their 19.91% to 18.41%. The placement by FMS Directors at the time must have p1ssed TIO off and felt it threatened their RTA (BBIG) plans as they promptly put the offer on the table soon after and subsequently sought to eject the current Directors, besides Kennedy.

OCJ is not a game changer for FMS, that is long gone as they had plenty of time well before TIO came along. However they are an important key going forward as their 21% holding can cause grief for any TIO offer but I can't see any offer coming any time soon whilst the State Agreement is in a pending state and also until the Strategic Review is completed. If and when both of these are clear and locked in then you may well see a price spike as on-market enthusiasm rises.

TIO will wait until the price settles back down and affords a cheaper VWAP before it puts a fresh offer on the table if at all but in the meantime do not expect a genuine takeover from anyone else. There is not a lot of love lost between TIO and OCJ so an SoA with an exception for OCJ is going to have be pretty juicy for OCJ before they would accept and that alone will drive the share price up beyond TIO's appetite.

Always remember the OCJ holding is a key for this reason, anything that TIO is required to seek shareholder approval for must be disclosed to the market and TIO will not be able to vote on it hence it adjusts the voting power of OCJ from 21% to nearly 40%.

TIO may well just focus on BBIG and let FMS plod along in the meantime until it is ready to strike if it chooses to. It may very well just ignore FMS and invite it to be a provider to BBIG as crushed rock and TIO will drive FMS to be a cost neutral business through its fee structure on the proposed infrastructure and this results in FMS barely existing at break-even and unable to ever pay a dividend. And for those that question TIO's equity in FMS? It was a pretty cheap way for them to getting control of the FMS ore so to meet the WA government requirement for the State Agreement.

Unless minority shareholders seriously get in the ear of the WA pollies to block the State Agreement passing through both houses until such time as TIO can show clear ownership of the FMS iron ore it will end in tears. If this does happen then that is when OCJ becomes the golden key as TIO will have to put a final and definitive take-over offer in for FMS. It could be the second coming of FMSU if they get together and succeed in blocking the Bill but really do it offline of HotCopper thanks, we don't wanna know.

By the way if you think someone revisiting the Anketell-WPIOP project could be a saviour for FMS think again as it would need FMS to drive its side of the deal and with TIO owning 53% and having control of the Board it wont happen no matter how feasible.

Just "putting it out there" sort of comments and asking loaded questions of other posters does no-one any favours, least of readers of the FMS forum threads.

Expand

Why do you think OCJ bought recently before and after the TH. They are expecting to make profit from that 8c buy wouldn't you think.

Or did they buy to bump there holding for a board seat or perhaps some other motive.

IMO DYOR

FMS Price at posting: 7.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
3 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Last 83.0¢		Change -0.020(2.35%)		Mkt cap ! $165.8M

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