hi kiddies,
CBA looks to me like it's trying to do Wave C of Wave 4 just now. The chart shows the general lay of the land. Waves so far are:
Wave 1: $23.05 - $27.90
Wave 2: $27.90 - $26.26
Wave 3: $26.26 - $30.62
Wave 4a: $30.62 - $28.90
Wave 4b: $28.90 - $30.14
Wave 4c: $30.14 - ?
This assessment of Wave 4 has it composed of 3 subwaves (a, b & c). Wave 4a is a 3-wave flat from $30.62 - $28.90. Wave 4b is an ascending triangle from $28.90 - $30.14 (other interpretations are possible... the ascending triangle would be particularly tidy here because triangles always come second to the last wave in the next larger strucuture - ie, the following wave, Wave 4c, should complete the whole Wave 4 structure).
Wave 4c started at $30.14 and should get below the beginning of Wave 4b @ $28.90 in order to complete itself and Wave 4 overall.
Obviously, if CBA now goes above $30.14 before getting back under $28.90, the whole assessment of Wave 4 so far is wrong. An alternative would be that Wave 4 already completed at $28.90 (this is the 38.2% retrace of Wave 3), although the structure after that point doesn't look much like the beginnings of an impulsive Wave 5 up...
For the purposes of this assessment, Wave 4 has to finish somewhere between $28.90 and $27.90, because 1) Wave 4 has to finish below the start of Wave 4b @ $28.90 to be valid, and 2) Wave 4 can't encroach upon the territory of Wave 2, so must not go below $27.90.
In order to take a guess at where Wave 4c might finish, the following ratios give some possible endpoints (values clearly beyond the permissible ending range for Wave 4 are dismissed):
Wave 4 = 21.4% x Wave 3 @ $29.63 --- invalid
Wave 4 = 38.2% x Wave 3 @ $28.88
Wave 4 = 50.0% x Wave 3 @ $28.36
Wave 4 = 61.8% x Wave 3 @ $27.85
Wave 4 = 78.6% x Wave 3 @ $27.14 --- invalid
Wave 4c = 078.6% x Wave 4a @ $28.80
Wave 4c = 100.0% x Wave 4a @ $28.45
Wave 4c = 138.2% x Wave 4a @ $27.80
Wave 4c = 161.8% x Wave 4a @ $27.45 --- invalid
Based on this lot, I'd say there's a good chance that CBA will get down to ~$28.45 or so, and a tangible possibility that it may even push the envelope all the way down to $27.90 (without breaching that level).
What I'd like to know is how the upcoming dividend is going to affect CBA's price. It seems to me, with my expectation for a local low for CBA in the first two weeks of September, that Wave 4c might just bounce around a bit for a few weeks before finally posting its endpoint. The dividend might be the trigger for a couple of weeks of volatility.
And then again, I could be wrong. This whole assessment of Wave 4 will be proven incorrect of CBA goes above $30.14 before getting back under $28.90...
Critical thoughts welcomed.
Regards,
Ultrafart.
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$131.66 |
Change
1.740(1.34%) |
Mkt cap ! $220.3B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$130.80 | $131.84 | $129.89 | $256.3M | 1.965M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 601 | $131.40 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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$131.66 | 712 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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2 | 260 | 131.200 |
1 | 10 | 131.000 |
2 | 803 | 130.600 |
1 | 500 | 130.570 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
131.660 | 712 | 1 |
131.700 | 665 | 2 |
131.720 | 500 | 1 |
131.730 | 1838 | 1 |
131.760 | 110 | 1 |
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