Those EBITDA figures are 2015 numbers. In addition the core PGC business had an EBITDA run rate of $4.3m pa at the end of FY15 due to the acquisition of Scanmedics only occurring part way through the year.
So core PGC business FY15 EBITDA $4.3m (assumes full 12 months of Scanmedics)
Add 3 major acquisitions FY15 EBITDA $9.8m
Total proforma FY15 EBITDA $14.1m.
The midpoint of today's guidance is $16.2m and that's if you can truly believe the seasonality is now running at a 49/51 split after moving the business to a 70% consumables business model. Doesn't seem quite believable to me. Perhaps there has also been some order slippage into H2 from H1.
So underlying EBITDA will have grown at an average rate of 7.2% pa from FY15 to FY17 if the forecast is met. This doesn't tie in with their 14% like for like growth claimed today.
Yes there has been EPS accretion from FY15 to FY16 and I was wrong to say there had been no accretion but so far it's really only from private to public multiple arbitrage. A truly successful acquisition strategy will drive EPS growth beyond the initial private to public uplift. FY17 was the year I was expecting to see PGC really drive home the synergies and grow EPS strongly.
I'd also add capex was $2.2m for 6 months vs a depreciation charge of approx $0.5m. If this sort of capex continues the depreciation is going to ramp up in future years which won't help the growth of NPAT relative to EBITDA.
And then there is the cash flow, or lack thereof.
PGC Price at posting:
72.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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