KK,
The below numbers are based on 24,000 tonnes production which I believe we have the potential to achieve. Regardless of the actual tonnage of concentrate produced, the ratios are the same. Part of the reason we are seeing a re-rate IMO is that AVB were substantially under valued, the other reason is the leverage a debt free copper miner has to copper price rises. (Mind you we have reductions if copper goes down as well).
AVB's fortunes are now firmly tied to to copper price movements as one variable. This approximately 4.5:1 ratio or
leverage is the reason a vertical graph right now while copper is climbing is totally appropriate and not just a technical traders example of an over exuberant movement which might pull back. I know you can cope with this bad news
Other copper plays will have similar dynamics but OZL and SFR have done a lot of moving already as copper was rising...until recently AVB was being ignored but apparently no more. Copper rose 4.65% on Friday evening, multiply that by the ratio and you have my 'technical projection' of where we could be Monday...but then there will be traders, and Instos getting set, cappers and the whole zoo that is the market as well.
I also notice LME stock piles continue to drop and the cynical part of me says BHP could make a killing out of this strike; it will put pressure on supply, probably raise copper prices, maybe significantly which will give BHP extra cash flow once back mining to meet the eventual bonus payments to their miners and share holders. I wonder if they will want it concluded quickly?
See you in the queue on Monday
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Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
Column 5 |
Column 6 |
Column 7 |
Column 8 |
Column 9 |
Column 10 |
Column 11 |
Column 12 |
| 1 |
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| 2 |
|
Antas North FS |
copper @ |
$2.20 |
AVB Earnings @ |
1.43 |
cents per share |
increase in Cu price |
0.00% |
increase in earnings |
0.00% |
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| 3 |
|
|
copper @ |
$2.50 |
AVB Earnings @ |
2.29 |
cents per share |
increase in Cu price |
13.64% |
increase in earnings |
60.14% |
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| 4 |
|
Current |
copper @ |
$2.75 |
AVB Earnings @ |
3 |
cents per share |
increase in Cu price |
25.00% |
increase in earnings |
109.79% |
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| 5 |
|
|
copper @ |
$3.00 |
AVB Earnings @ |
3.73 |
cents per share |
increase in Cu price |
36.36% |
increase in earnings |
160.84% |
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| 6 |
|
|
copper @ |
$3.50 |
AVB Earnings @ |
5.16 |
cents per share |
increase in Cu price |
59.09% |
increase in earnings |
260.84% |
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| 7 |
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|
copper @ |
$4.00 |
AVB Earnings @ |
6.59 |
cents per share |
increase in Cu price |
81.82% |
increase in earnings |
360.84% |
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| 8 |
|
High of last cycle |
copper @ |
$4.50 |
AVB Earnings @ |
8 |
cents per share |
increase in Cu price |
104.55% |
increase in earnings |
459.44% |
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| 9 |
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|
copper @ |
$5.00 |
AVB Earnings @ |
9.46 |
cents per share |
increase in Cu price |
127.27% |
increase in earnings |
561.54% |
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| 10 |
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The HC formatting has made it harder to read, so I will follow with a screen capture/picture
