valuation based on 10000tpa, page-2

ghosta

mate im not down-ramping.

I actually hold a parcel, and I NEVER buy big parcels of mining stocks, so I have a small parcel of AGM, JBM, IGO, PEM, KZL and SMY.

you guys would probably laugh at the sizes of my parcels compared to yours and I understand that you guys have heaps in AGM , so I apologise for being a little conservative with my valuations, however I still believe that these are "base-case" valuations that the market gives to most junior producers.

Like I said - look at JBM or OXR as they have huge resources but a P/E more than 10?? No way.

EQN - Equinox has something like 25years+ worth of copper and I used to hold them, but sold out in my younger days cause I got too impatient and the stock was a dog for ages.

AGM is a bloody good stock.

The reason why i bought is because i figured that I need approx 20%-30% return on my money in the market each yr and ill be happy.

AGM can give me this in the next yr if it gets up to 75cents!

Im not greedy because everyone I know that gets greedy in the market usually ends up with egg on their face (due to making too many stupid speccy investments which cancel eachother out in the end)

Im in the market to make money, not lose.

thats why i always buy companys in the mining game tha are producing or a few months away from production nowadays

AGM will get me my 30% at 75cents ; the probability of AGM being 75cents in one yr is very high; thus my 30% return im chasing is very high in AGM.

I dont know how vayama gets his EPS figures????

My final take on this is that in 1 years time, using 8500 tonnes; PON of 30,000; net profit margin after tax at 40% (dont forget this is net profit margin with 30% tax applied to it already)

I get 19 cents per share EPS

P/E of 5 and I get 95cents (this is valuation based on a very high margin AFTER TAX and much hhigher than average nickel price)

OK id say $1 or a little over a dollar best case scenario if PON is higher.

***reason why I like AGM (and other efficient nickel miners) is because I believe NICKEL PRICE will be very high in the short-term with much more upside as no new production is coming on stream die to cosrt blow-outs everywhere with the big boys. Supply will be tighter more than ever come mid-year with the icy waters in russia preventing supply coming to LME.

PON will be the major driver for AGM

When its officially producing id say the share price will go up a little (but most of this is factored in2 price today)

todays price as ive said is based already on 5000 tonnes production at today ni price with P/e 5.

If AGM is $1 in one year (which I think it will be slightly above $1) , then ill make my 30% expected rate of return plus CHANGE . (A LOT of extra change:))

this is mostly cause I think that the PON will be higher.