A2 milk not slowing down, page-38

I haven't seen the interview, but what they reported today regarding FY17H2:

1) Will be less sales in FY17H2 than FY17H1, but "materially" more than FY16H2.
2) "Materially" is a special word in ASX language and means at least 10% or more.
3) Being conservative, they would not state this unless they thought they would get at least 15% more than Fy16H2, imo.
4) The numbers for FY16H2 were: Revenue - 214M, EBITDA - 35M, NPAT - 20M.
5) Increase this by 15% as per today's guidance we get Fy17H2 estimate: Revenue - 246M, EBITDA - 40, NPAT - 23. This is a very basic estimate as I have just multiplied all those numbers by 15%.
6) So adding today's H1 numbers to the estimate above we get: Revenue - 502M (256M + 246M), EBITDA - 104M (64M + 40M), NPAT - 63M (40M + 23M). This estimate is still in line with current analsyst estimates:
http://www.4-traders.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-21453329/financials/

If you take out the losses from USA as business development costs, you get a normalised NPAT much closer $85-90M.

90M x 30PE gives you a $2.7B NZD company sitting on $108M cash. When Peter Nathan says they believe 2.6% of the Chinese IF market is a very low base and they have ambitions, they are saying they want at least 5-10% of the market. Given we are talking about high margin IF growth, it's not hard to imagine a tripling of NPAT over the next 3-4 years once Synlait's new plant is commissioned and three quarters of A2M's competition is gone in China.