I think Market fair reaction to A2's report is NZX pre-ASX open ($2.50 - $2.60). However, too much expectation on ASX over past two weeks, result in too many holders taking profit today (biggest daily volumn ever), and with A2 management's too prudent outlook 2H FY17, more people jumped into panic selling.
After 1HFY16 result, decline trends.. after 2HFY16 result, decline trends.. Is today another start of declining trend? I don't know. What I know is, followed by 1HFY16 result is rumors about 8th, April regulation policy, followed by 2HFY16 is rumors about 1st, Oct regulation policy and A2 court case. Price may had been manipulated by Instituions, or shorted by shorters, but at least they have a "reason" or "excuse" to influce the share price.. What's followed by 1HFY17? Publish of reasearch? Launch of new products? new Newzealand Market? Or even registration of IF in chinese market? They are all positive news! Any negative news? I cant think of any yet, enlighten me if you are aware of.
Why Mr Babidge are so prudent about 2HFY17 outlook? First reason I can think of is Jan 17 Sales data decreased dramatically, as shown on Value123's data chart becasue of Chinese New Year. Another thing is, Chinese New Year in 2017 fall onto 28/01/2017. Majority of Chinese courier business had been closed for almost two weeks in Jan, which means A2's sales could have missed over 2 weeks' sales (that's over half month's sale!) However, date of Chinese New Year in 2016 is 08/02/2016, which means Jan sale in 2016 may have just missed maximum 1 week's sale. When comparing Jan 16 and Jan 17, if Jan 17 is slightly higher than Jan 16, I wouldn't be too confident with rest of the year, after a hugh sales in first half? However, if we consider Chinese New Year longer Holiday Period in Jan 17, even if Jan 17 is bit higher than Jan 16, then potentially Jan17 is much higher than Jan16.
As an industry heavlily relied on Chinese Market, BAL storm may have gone, but it definitely left some clouds, which make conservative management more conservative, but some of us know clouds will be gone, because A2 is the SUN.
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