MSB 0.91% $1.11 mesoblast limited

Two GREAT takeaways, page-20

  1. 16,556 Posts.
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    As an example- I would take a risk and invest in the 1st Mcdonalds store where as you would wait till business is profitable.

    Oh, no, I would also invest in the first McDonalds store. At the right valuation, of course.

    Because at least I would be able to derive some sort of valuation for it: for example, I'd be able to look at similar stores located in similar suburbs with similar parking access and I'd be able to make some half-decent forecasts of the costs of the fitout, the foot traffic, unit sales, unit pricing and costing, fixed costs etc, and therefore profitability..

    There is ample precedent valuation for a fast-food outlet.

    And in the event that it wasn't viable, I would be able to dimension my potential downside capital loss in terms what would the fixed assets be worth in a liquidation scenario, would I be able to sub-let the store if I needed to close down.

    But for something that is quite conceptual, the above exercises are not possible because one has no information that is based on precedent with which to work in order to derive a valuation.

    Which explains why - given all the many hundreds, indeed thousands - of posts on MSB threads over many years, there is virtually zero mention of valuation for the company.
    Because its not possible to do perform one. Unlike a McDonalds store where one can draw on precedent, conduce research and build a rudimentary model for such a business.

    So, in this context, I think that comparing Mesoblast and McDonalds is drawing a bit of a long bow; one is a tactile business, the other is quite conceptual.
 
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