Chart, page-301

The underlying fact is Japan is fighting tooth & nail to hold 45% mkt share of the high end NdFeB space, which represents c15% of total NdFeB.

NdFeB is THE central theme to the whole RE story ATM, particularly since the demise of high value phosphors, all else is secondary in support.

The rather surprising thing that has emerged past 26 months is just how advanced Chinese manufacturers are in the techniques of HRE deletion, creating stronger, smaller, lower cost NdFeB in the process, most notably the manufacturers in SOE verticals with HRE resource.

A fact that totally escapes the US glitterati commentariat still blindly focused on HRE primary production rather than the almost total lack of NdFeB manufacturing base. The Chinese export data I've seen suggests the US imports circa 120tpa magnet materials, 100tpa NdPr/20tpa HRE vs +1200tpa NdFeB.

To the contrary, the Japanese understand the vital role of NdPr, and must have been greatly concerned by Lynas FY16 sales data showing 47% by value, read NdPr, flowing to the Dragon. Lynas NdPr is the lifeblood of Japanese NdFeB (which recently lost a large Hitachi plant to China) so little wonder they came running last Sept, and snookered a higher percentage of LAMP future output in the process.

Now I don't lean to conspiracy theory, actually believe it's a result of a process that's been in train some time, but is it coincidental that LRE prices have began to appreciate a few months after JARE made the very strong statement that Lynas was here for the long haul?

Punting Lynas has been geopolitical as much as anything else, frankly struggle to conceptualise the potential leverage of perhaps the 7ktpa NdPr this penny dreadful may produce in the current config.

No Peer, but the market is yet to figure it.