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A stab at the maths - I am a total newbie, so somebody please set me right!

E63/1145 and E63/1146 combined are some 135sqkm. I've found a few lignite claims on ~100sqkm of land with 500Mt+ of lignite.

So, being conservative, could we be looking at 100Mt?

Lignite is ~$5/tonne...

Even if extraction costs $2.50 a tonne, could this be worth $250M - less tax and NPV... again being conservative, $100M?

Say there is a 1/4 chance of their being lignite, (75% chance of nothing), the value would be $25M.

Give a 50/50 chance that BLK wins vs. Westfarmers, value is still $12.5M

Plus possible value for E63/1147...

Market is currently valuing this at $4M.

Is my math totally wrong, or will I really enjoy my luck?

As I say - I am a total newbie - the only thing I am certain of here is that final answer above is wrong. Do you own math!