JLB, we have been on couple forums, namely BAL and MFG and I do enjoy your posts. However I do disagree with your interpretation about the guidance forecast for second half. Your interpreting the revenue going backwards but i see it going forward of up to 25%. My interpretation is Geoff was hosing down expectations due to supply constraints and volatile Chinese regulations. His done the right thing. Another few point of differences between A2 and BAL are:
1) A2 demand is higher than what BAL experienced
2) Singles day performance blitzed BAL, filling top few spots in Stage 3
3) Clearly has Diagou support
4) Better management
For the SP to go back below $1.80, revenue will need to drop substantially. I don't see it happening.
However the next 6 months is the key for A2. If you follow the timeline of BAL and BKL, it is around this time that revenue began to drop.
Half yearly earnings., page-46
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