ftse falling... poor amp, page-59

re: amp revisited So, where to next for AMP?

The speculation will continue for some time, but either dismemberment of the business (domestic and international) will occur, or the Australian domestic business will be taken over.

Already, there has been a controlled for of liquidation of the business with a number of the AMP spin-offs being preyed upon or acquired by competing property trusts (etc) whilst others are in the process of being radically transformed.

Earlier this year, I speculated upon The National acquiring (or being encouraged) to acquire a strategic stake (up to 30%) in AMP and its domestic franchise.

At the time, I mooted a $4.75 strike price which currently is above tonight's $4.50 closing price.

Whilst it is unlikely that a prospective predator such as The National would move on AMP (etc) before announcing its own full year results in late September, it is also quite possible that we may now see some action heading towards October.

AMP's days of controlling its own destiny already appear numbered. Clearly, if the de-merger /restructuring activities do not work quickly and clearly, the pace of "liquidation" of assets /positions will increase, the risk to assets under management will increase, and staff, investors and customers alike will all become more and more nervous.

It is not a case of wanting AMP to fail, but rather, one of saying that now, above all else, is the time for the AMP to be completely transparent, open, and direct with all of the risks /threats that the business is currently confronting, in Australia and overseas.

Suggestions of having debt for equity conversions are not helpful in those circumstances where this will simply be supporting or reinforcing a false promise (ie: at the time of the earlier equity raising, the comment was made that no more equity would be required, or called upon).

Also, using highly subjective language in order to club together as one, all funding sources (other than trade creditors), and treating these as one class of effective capital (ie: to be converted from one classification into ordinary shares, etc), simply perpetuates a problem that remains inherent (ie: that there's something rotten in the State of Denmark).

Time will, therefore, tell on this one, as well.